The report cover of The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey Report (Photo: ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute)

🎯 The Main Takeaway

📝 Conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, this survey captures the geopolitical and economic sentiments of 2,008 regional opinion-makers across all ASEAN member states, administered in seven languages.

Southeast Asia is gripped by multidimensional anxiety. While climate change remains the undisputed existential threat 🌪️, a deep geopolitical dread is taking hold.

The region feels trapped in a vise 🗜️ between a highly distrusted China and the unpredictable trajectory of U.S. leadership.

Instead of picking sides, ASEAN leaders are playing defense 🛡️ doubling down on internal unity and quietly outsourcing their trust to reliable middle powers 🤝.

📡 Why It’s on Our Radar

These shifting sentiments are a bellwether for global stability. There are three immediate flashpoints shaping the region’s posture:

💥 The accidental war risk: Tensions in the South China Sea have moved past political rhetoric into direct fears of physical, escalatory clashes.
🚢 Supply chain shockwaves: Export-heavyweight nations are sweating the economic gravity of superpower trade wars and protectionist policies 📉.
🚨 The new security frontier: Borderless, digital crimes specifically global scam operations 💻 have exploded into a top-tier regional threat, rivaling traditional hard-power concerns.

📊 What’s at Stake?

Beyond the immediate anxieties, the 2026 data points to systemic shifts that will alter Southeast Asia’s long-term trajectory:

⚖️ The survival of the rules-based order: ASEAN’s diplomatic shield relies entirely on multilateralism. If superpowers normalize bypassing international law, that shield shatters 🔨.
⚓ A lopsided leadership burden: The bloc is heavily dependent on just three nations (Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia) to steer the ship. Domestic distractions in any of these capitals could create a critical regional leadership vacuum 🕳️.
🧠 The battle for human capital: As domestic economic pressures mount, nations that fail to align with the normative and lifestyle appeal of trusted global partners face a severe talent drain of their most influential minds ✈️.

An infographic titled "SE Asia: The Security Risk Landscape" highlighting climate change as the primary regional threat at 60%, closely followed by concerns over U.S. political unpredictability, global digital scams, and maritime incursions. — (Data Source: ISEAS; AI Graphic: NotebookLM)

🌍 The 2026 Regional Outlook: By the Numbers

The hard data behind the region’s biggest threats.

⛈️ The Big Three: Climate change and extreme weather dominate (60.0%), followed by intensifying major power economic tensions (51.7%) and domestic political instability (46.1%).
🦅 The Trump Factor: A potential U.S. administration shift under Donald Trump is the region’s highest geopolitical worry (51.9%).
📱 The Scam Pandemic: Tied almost evenly with U.S. unpredictability, the threat of global scam operations sits at 51.4%.
🌊 South China Sea: 51.7% are highly concerned by China’s incursions into Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), with 45.2% fearing an accidental military confrontation could spark a full-blown crisis 🧨.

⚖️ The Influence of Major Powers

Economic dominance is generating more dread than welcome.

🇨🇳 China’s expanding footprint: China holds the most dominant economic and strategic position, but it generates deep anxiety. 68.5% of respondents worry about its economic influence; only 31.5% welcome it.
🇺🇸 The U.S. economic squeeze: Regional concern regarding U.S. economic impact now outweighs its welcome (53.8% worry vs. 46.2% welcome), a fear intensely concentrated in export-driven economies like Thailand and Malaysia 🏭.
🔄 The Middle Power pivot: To buffer against the superpower binary, the region is elevating alternative partners. The EU 🇪🇺 is valued as a normative and regulatory partner, while Australia 🇦🇺, South Korea 🇰🇷, and India 🇮🇳 maintain steady strategic relevance.

An infographic titled "The ASEAN Balancing Act" illustrating how Southeast Asian nations navigate US and China competition by prioritizing international maritime law, national sovereignty, and strengthening the ASEAN bloc. — (Data Source: ISEAS; AI Graphic: NotebookLM)

⚔️ Navigating the U.S.-China Rivalry

How the region plans to survive the clash of the titans.

📜 The Demand for Beijing: When asked how China can repair regional friction, the absolute top demand (35.1%) is for Beijing to resolve all territorial and maritime disputes peacefully and strictly in accordance with international law.
🛑 Respecting Sovereignty: 25.5% state that China must respect the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations and stop constraining their independent foreign policy choices.
🛡️ The Minilateral Trap: As the U.S. and China create competing international groupings (like the Quad or BRICS+), the region’s reflex is to pull together, not fracture. 33.0% say ASEAN must aggressively strengthen its own normative influence to keep members committed to the bloc, rather than defecting to external superpower groupings.
🕊️ A Sliver of Hope: Despite the high tensions, diplomacy isn’t dead. Only a tiny fraction (2.7%) takes the bleak, fatalistic view that the fault lines between their country and China “cannot be bridged.”

🤝 The Trust Deficit & Regional Playbook

Where Southeast Asia places its faith when the superpowers fall short.

🥇 Japan remains the gold standard: For the eighth consecutive year, Tokyo 🇯🇵 is the region’s most trusted partner (58.9%), viewed as a reliable stakeholder that respects international law without demanding political concessions.
⚠️ China remains the most distrusted: A massive 62.5% express distrust in Beijing, driven overwhelmingly by fears that its military and economic weight will be used to coerce smaller nations.
⚡ The U.S. polarizes: Trust in Washington sits at 42.4%, but distrust is creeping closely behind at 38.6%, reflecting fears of domestic U.S. volatility.
🏰 The defensive strategy: To survive this trust deficit, the most popular strategy (33.0%) is to aggressively strengthen ASEAN’s internal convening power, preventing member states from defecting to competing minilateral groupings.

🧲 The Soft Power Index

Hard power doesn’t dictate cultural affinity.

🧳 The metric: When measuring “soft power,” asking where thought leaders prefer to relocate or travel, the survey reveals a stark contrast to geopolitical metrics.
🌟 The reality: The data highlights which nations hold the strongest educational 🎓, tourism 🏖️, and lifestyle pull, ultimately deciding where Southeast Asia’s top talent wants to build their future.

The Bottom Line

Southeast Asia is officially playing defense 🛡️. Caught in a geopolitical vise, the region is abandoning the hope of superpower benevolence.

To survive the coming years, Southeast Asia nations’ alliance must rapidly fortify its internal unity 🔗, manage the strain of new memberships of its regional organization like Timor-Leste, and lean on trusted middle powers before external pressures force its famed consensus to snap ⚡.

Need More Angles?

(ARS/QOB)

🛡️ Southeast Asia is playing defense: The…