Series of Disasters
Indonesia is facing a series of disasters, from earthquakes and volcanic activity to forest and land fires and drought expected to persist into 2027.
Seismic and volcanic hazards have disrupted travel, education and the national economy, while dry conditions have heightened the risk of forest and land fires, many of which are linked to land clearing.
The resulting haze has also affected neighbouring countries, with Malaysia and Brunei raising the issue at the ASEAN level.
Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity
Indonesia is located at the convergence of three major tectonic plates, the Indo-Australian, Eurasian and Pacific plates, making it prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity. Earthquakes in Indonesia originate from several geological sources, including:
Subduction zones: Found along Sumatra, Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, as well as around Maluku. These zones are associated with megathrusts, where one tectonic plate is forced beneath another. When the fault becomes locked, tectonic stress accumulates and can eventually be released as a major earthquake, potentially triggering a tsunami.
Transform zones: Areas where tectonic plates move horizontally along a boundary. Indonesia has active strike-slip fault systems, including those in Papua and eastern Indonesia.
Active faults: Shallow faults that can generate earthquakes, including the Lembang Fault in West Java and the Sumatran Fault, as well as active fault systems across Java and Sulawesi.
The risks are already having tangible impacts.
On 6 September, volcanic ash from Anak Krakatau disrupted aviation operations, with eight airports temporarily closed due to the ash cloud.
Airlines had to reschedule flights, reroute flights, and refund affected passengers. The ash also affected schools, offices and daily activities as it spread across surrounding areas.
A disaster does not need to destroy infrastructure to disrupt it.
An unsafe airspace, a closed school, or a delayed shipment can be enough.
On 15 August, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Flores, East Nusa Tenggara.
The scale of the ongoing disaster raises a broader question about Indonesia’s preparedness to respond to another major disaster, even as communities affected by the earthquake that struck Sumatra earlier in 2026 have yet to fully recover.
Siaga III (Alert Level 3)
As of 18 September, six volcanoes in Indonesia are at Alert Level III:
Semeru in East Java
Sinabung in North Sumatra
Ibu in North Maluku
Anak Krakatau in Lampung
Lewotobi Laki-Laki in East Nusa Tenggara
Merapi in Yogyakarta.
Forest and Land Fires
Forest and land fires have intensified during Indonesia's dry season.
Pantau Gambut recorded 15,067 hotspots in July 2026, a 549% increase from June, with the largest increases recorded in West Kalimantan, South Papua, Central Kalimantan, Aceh, and Riau.
As of 18 September, the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) monitoring showed high-confidence hotspots concentrated mainly in Central Kalimantan, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan and South Papua.
Hotspots are detected using VIIRS and MODIS sensors aboard polar-orbiting satellites, including NOAA-20, Suomi NPP, Terra and Aqua.
National’s economic and health.
Centre of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) estimated that forest and land fires between January and August 2026 could pose potential economic and health losses of Rp39.29 trillion to Rp123.1 trillion.
The figures are projected risks, not confirmed realised losses, and exclude losses from volcanic disruptions.
In Central Kalimantan, the provincial government introduced remote learning from 31 August in areas where air quality reached unhealthy to hazardous levels.
EBC Financial Group highlighted the broader economic implications of recurring physical disruptions, particularly their potential to affect logistics, commodity shipments and export planning.
EBC Financial Group financial market analyst Sana Ur Rehman linked the disruption to Indonesia’s planned Strategic Commodities and Minerals Exchange in 2027, arguing that reliable logistics and supply chains will be important for the credibility of domestic commodity price benchmarks.
Drought and Worsening Environmental Conditions
Indonesia is facing increasingly severe dry conditions amid a very strong El Niño. BMKG recorded a +2.18°C Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly in June–August 2026, with El Niño expected to persist into early 2027.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) between September and December could further intensify the drought risk.
By August, the longest dry spell reached 100 consecutive days in Bantul, Yogyakarta.
July 2026 was the driest July since 1991, and by early August, 76.5% of Indonesia’s rainfall monitoring zones had entered the dry season.
These prolonged dry conditions have also increased the risk of forest and land fires and haze.
We Knew the Risk
Indonesia is not short of warnings.
On 28 August, the Setanah, Tak Diam exhibition presented research mapping seismic and volcanic exposure in Greater Bandung, where more than nine million people live alongside the Lembang Fault and several active volcanoes.
The research combines satellite data, AI, geoscience and local knowledge to identify vulnerabilities before disaster strikes.
The problem is therefore not simply whether Indonesia knows where the risks are.
It is whether that knowledge reaches land-use planning, infrastructure and public preparedness before it is too late.
Recovery Is Not the Same as Resilience
Indonesia was already struggling to fully recover from earlier disasters in Sumatra when another chain of crises emerged, from forest fires and drought to the destruction of ecosystems and the displacement of vulnerable communities.
Then came the M7.7 Flores earthquake.
The earthquake also exposed a less visible dimension of disaster response: survival does not end when people escape the initial disaster.
The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported that 94 people died while staying in evacuation sites in NTT.
They clarified that most were elderly people who died from complications related to pre-existing chronic illnesses such as stroke and diabetes, rather than direct trauma from the earthquake.
That clarification changes the cause of death, but not necessarily the question of preparedness.
An evacuation system is not only expected to keep people alive during an earthquake.
It must also sustain people who are elderly, chronically ill, disabled or otherwise vulnerable while normal healthcare and living conditions are disrupted.
So the uncomfortable question is not simply who is responsible for the 94 deaths.
It is whether the system was sufficiently prepared to care for people who were already vulnerable before the earthquake happened.
And this is where accountability matters.
Southeast Asia Bears the Cost
Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam agreed in August to use the ASEAN mechanism to address the returning transboundary haze.
By September, Serian, Sarawak recorded an Air Pollution Index (API) of 519, exceeding Malaysia’s hazardous threshold of 300 and the 500 threshold for declaring an emergency.
The district subsequently declared a state of emergency, while schools were closed in affected areas.
The region has a framework to respond. ASEAN has had the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution (AATHP) for years, with mechanisms for monitoring, prevention and joint emergency response.
What remains to be seen is how effectively this regional framework can translate into coordinated action as the haze continues to cross borders.
A disaster may be unavoidable, but poor preparedness is not necessarily inevitable.
Need More Angle?
Antara Pemprov NTT Konsolidasikan Satu Data Percepat Pemulihan Gempa Flores
BMKG BMKG Dorong Kesiapsiagaan Lintas Sektor Hadapi Dampak El Niño 2026
BMKG Prakiraan Cuaca Indonesia Sepekan Periode 18–24 September 2026: El Niño Sangat Kuat Masih Berdampak
BMKG Tentang Gempa
BNPB Perkembangan Situasi dan Penanganan Bencana di Tanah Air 17 September 2026
BNPB Sebanyak 51.591 Rumah Pascagempa M7,7 Flores Telah Diverifikasi
BRIN BRIN dan Mitra Petakan Potensi Risiko Gempa Sesar Lembang
Kompas.com BNPB Luruskan Data 94 Warga Meninggal di Pengungsian Gempa NTT Disebabkan Penyakit Kronis
The Jakarta Post Malaysia, Brunei to raise cross-border haze issue at ASEAN
(BRZ/QOB)