Southeast Asia occupies a central geopolitical and geoeconomic position at the heart of the Asia-Pacific.
The region is remarkably diverse, encompassing political systems ranging from open democracies and monarchies to socialist states.
It also has a long history of close relations and security alliances with Western powers, particularly the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
Against this complex backdrop, ASEANās open-door approach to trade, covering a market of more than 680 million people with an estimated aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding USD 3 trillion in 2026, presents a significant opportunity for BRICS economies to expand their investment presence.
Singapore offers a particularly illustrative example.
The country has skilfully navigated the inflow of economic integration and large-scale capital from major BRICS economies without abandoning its traditional strategic partnerships with the United States and the United Kingdom.
Markets as a bridge across geopolitical divides
The expansion of BRICS investment can be examined through Jagdish Bhagwatiās thinking on international trade.
Philosophically, Bhagwati argues that the āhorse must come before the cartā: economic growth generated through private-sector productivity and free markets serves as the āhorseā that pulls the ācartā of social welfare and poverty alleviation.
From this perspective, China, India, and Russia in Southeast Asia have focused on breaking down rigid protectionist barriers, enabling greater market creativity and facilitating the expansion of private corporations.
Through deeper integration among private corporations across emerging markets, potential friction arising from ideological differences or geopolitical proximity to the Western bloc can be pragmatically moderated through mutually beneficial economic interdependence.
BRICS investment and Southeast Asian growth
BRICS investment and market expansion have measurable implications for regional GDP.
According to the IMFās 2026 World Economic Outlook, India is projected to grow by 7.0%, positioning it as a major driver of research expansion and technological innovation in the region.
China, growing at 4.4%, remains a major upstream supplier in regional supply chains.
Vietnam is recording an average growth rate of 5.6%, while Indonesia maintains a steady growth rate of 4.9%, reinforcing their positions as major destinations for manufacturing relocation.
Malaysia is growing steadily at 4.0% as an exporter of technological equipment, while Thailand, at 1.6%, continues to integrate its logistics sector.
Singapore, growing at 3.5%, is further consolidating its role as a global financial centre capable of efficiently balancing, absorbing, and mediating capital flows among China, the United States, and ASEAN.
What BRICS could mean for Indonesia?
For Indonesia specifically, its demographic base of approximately 288 million people and projected GDP of around USD 1.54 trillion in 2026 give its domestic market considerable bargaining power to explore private-sector partnerships with individual BRICS members.
With Brazil, Indonesiaās private sector could pursue technology transfers in bioethanol energy and tropical agriculture.
With Russia, domestic corporations have strategic opportunities for technology transfer in cybersecurity, aerospace, and future energy security.
Partnership with India could focus on strengthening the production base for pharmaceutical raw materials and software development, effectively expanding existing cooperation in the automotive, textile, and palm oil industries.
China, meanwhile, remains a central partner for Indonesiaās private sector in accelerating the downstream processing of critical minerals and developing the battery ecosystem.
South Africa offers another important opportunity, both as a partner in mining technology and as an export hub through which Indonesian manufactured products could reach markets across the African continent.
This diversification of cross-continental partnerships provides a strong foundation for the expansion of Indonesiaās private industries.
From raw materials to advanced manufacturing
The greatest expectation surrounding deeper BRICS economic engagement with ASEAN is that it could accelerate structural transformation, shifting the region away from dependence on raw-material exports towards a high-value manufacturing economy.
Vietnam has demonstrated this potential by leveraging substantial investment and its proximity to Chinese supply chains to emerge as an advanced manufacturing centre within the global electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem.
Malaysia has similarly attracted significant capital to develop its global semiconductor ecosystem.
This momentum requires countries such as Indonesia to play an active role as facilitators by providing investment-friendly regulations while positioning the private sector as the principal engine of innovation.
With strong technology-transfer requirements embedded in BRICS sectoral agreements, such investment could help create a more dynamic and resilient economy while contributing directly to improvements in welfare at the grassroots level.
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Adri Arlan Sinaga is a doctoral student in International Relations at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), Beijing. His research focuses on foreign policy, global security, and the geopolitical dynamics of ASEAN and BRICS. Contact email: de202458004@uibe.edu.cn.
References
ASEAN Secretariat. (2025). ASEAN Statistical Highlights 2025.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2026). Statistik Indonesia 2026.
Bhagwati, J. (2002). Free trade today. Princeton University Press.
Bhagwati, J. (2004). In defense of globalization. Oxford University Press.
Bhagwati, J., & Panagariya, A. (2013). Why growth matters: How economic growth in India reduced poverty and the lessons for other developing countries. PublicAffairs.
Gilpin, R. (2001). Global political economy: Understanding the international economic order. Princeton University Press.
International Monetary Fund. (2026). World economic outlook.
Indian Ministry Trade and Commerce. (2026). India-ASEAN bilateral trade report.
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